Universities are widely expected to respond to technological transitions through rapid reconfiguration of programme demand and curricular supply. Using four decades of longitudinal administrative cohorts (1980-2019) from a large public university, we examine whether technological change is translated into observable shifts in programme hierarchy, or instead absorbed by institutional mechanisms that preserve structural stability. We show that programme rankings by entrant volume remain remarkably stable over time, while the translation of technological transitions into enrolment composition occurs with substantial delay. Short-run adjustment appears primarily in early persistence dynamics: attrition reacts sooner than choice, and "growth" in entrants can coexist with declining early survival - producing false winners in which expansion is decoupled from persistence. Macroeconomic volatility amplifies attrition and compresses between-programme differences, masking technological signals that would otherwise be interpreted as preference shifts. To explain why stability dominates responsiveness, we situate these patterns within nationally regulated constraints governing engineering education - minimum total hours and mandated practice intensity - which materially limit the speed of curricular adaptation (Ministerio de Educacion, 2021; Ley de Educacion Superior, 1995). National system metrics further support the plausibility of a high-friction equilibrium in which large inflows coexist with standardised outputs (Secretaria de Politicas Universitarias [SPU], 2022). These findings suggest that apparent rigidity is not an anomaly but the predictable outcome of a system optimised for stability over responsiveness.

翻译：人们普遍预期大学将通过快速调整专业需求与课程供给来应对技术转型。本研究利用一所大型公立大学四十年的纵向行政队列数据（1980-2019），检验技术变革是否转化为可观测的专业层级变化，抑或被维持结构稳定的制度机制所吸收。研究表明，按入学人数排名的专业序位随时间推移保持显著稳定，而技术转型对入学构成的调整存在明显滞后。短期调整主要体现在早期持续性动态中：流失率比专业选择更早产生反应，且入学人数的"增长"可与早期留存率下降并存——这催生了扩张与持续性脱钩的"虚假优胜专业"。宏观经济波动会放大流失效应并压缩专业间差异，从而掩盖了本可被解读为偏好转变的技术信号。为解释稳定性为何主导响应性，我们将这些模式置于国家监管的工程教育约束框架中进行分析——最低总学时与强制实践强度（教育部，2021；《高等教育法》，1995）实质性地限制了课程调整速度。国家系统指标进一步支持高摩擦均衡的合理性：大规模生源流入与标准化产出可以并存（大学政策秘书处[SPU]，2022）。这些发现表明，表面上的僵化并非异常现象，而是系统为稳定性而非响应性进行优化的可预测结果。