Penalty shootouts play a crucial role in the knockout stage of major football tournaments. Their importance has substantially increased from the 2021/22 season, when the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) scrapped the away goals rule. Our paper examines whether the outcome of a penalty shootout can be predicted in UEFA club competitions. Based on all shootouts between 2000 and 2025, no evidence is found for the effect of the kicking order, the field of the match, or psychological momentum. In contrast to previous results, we do not detect any relationship between shootout success and relative team strength, quantified by differences in Elo ratings and the implied winning probability. Thus, the hypothesis that penalty shootouts are close to a coin toss in international competitions for European football clubs cannot be rejected.

翻译：点球大战在重大足球赛事的淘汰赛阶段起着关键作用。自2021/22赛季起，欧洲足球协会联盟（UEFA）取消客场进球规则后，其重要性显著提升。本文研究在欧洲俱乐部赛事中能否预测点球大战的结果。基于2000年至2025年间所有点球大战的数据，未发现踢球顺序、比赛场地或心理动量效应的证据。与先前研究结果相反，我们未检测到点球大战成功与相对球队实力（通过Elo评分差异和隐含获胜概率量化）之间存在任何关系。因此，不能拒绝点球大战在欧洲足球俱乐部国际赛事中接近抛硬币的假设。