We study financial transaction confirmation finality in Bitcoin as a function of transaction amount and user risk tolerance. A transaction is recorded in a block on a blockchain. However, a transaction may be revoked due to a fork in the blockchain, the odds of which decrease over time but never reach zero. Therefore, a transaction is considered confirmed if its block is sufficiently deep in the blockchain. This depth is usually set empirically at some fixed number such as six blocks. We analyze forks under varying network delays in simulation and actual Bitcoin data. Based on this analysis, we establish a relationship between block depth and the probability of confirmation revocation due to a fork. We use prospect theory to relate transaction confirmation probability to transaction amount and user risk tolerance.

翻译：本研究将比特币金融交易的确认最终性建模为交易金额与用户风险承受能力的函数。交易被记录在区块链的区块中，但由于区块链可能发生分叉，交易存在被撤销的风险——该概率随时间递减但永不归零。因此，当交易所在区块在区块链中达到足够深度时，该交易被视为已确认。传统实践中常将确认深度经验性地设定为固定值（如六个区块）。我们通过模拟不同网络延迟下的分叉情况并结合实际比特币数据进行分析，建立了区块深度与因分叉导致交易撤销概率之间的量化关系。基于前景理论，我们将交易确认概率与交易金额及用户风险容忍度进行关联建模。