In this research, the contributions of a highly productive minority of scientists to the national Polish research output over the past three decades (1992-2021) is explored. In almost all previous research, the approaches to high research productivity are missing the time component. Cross-sectional studies were not complemented by longitudinal studies: Scientists comprising the classes of top performers have not been tracked over time. Three classes of top performers (the upper 1%, 5%, and 10%) are examined, and a surprising temporal stability of productivity patterns is found. The 1/10 and 10/50 rules consistently apply across the three decades: The upper 1% of scientists, on average, account for 10% of the national output, and the upper 10% account for almost 50% of total output, with significant disciplinary variations. The Relative Presence Index (RPI) we constructed shows that men are overrepresented and women underrepresented in all top performers classes. Top performers are studied longitudinally through their detailed publishing histories, with micro-data coming from the raw Scopus dataset. Econometric models identify the three most important predictors that change the odds ratio estimates of membership in the top performance classes: gender, academic age, and research collaboration. The downward trend in fixed effects over successive six-year periods indicates increasing competition in academia. A large population of all internationally visible Polish scientists (N=152,043) with their 587,558 articles is studied.

翻译：本研究探讨了过去三十年（1992-2021年）中，少数高产出科学家对波兰国家科研产出的贡献。在几乎所有既往研究中，对高科研生产率的研究方法均缺乏时间维度。横断面研究未能与纵向研究相结合：构成顶尖绩效群体的科学家未能在时间维度上被追踪。本研究考察了三个顶尖绩效群体（前1%、5%和10%），并发现了生产力模式惊人的时间稳定性。1/10和10/50规则在这三十年间持续适用：前1%的科学家平均贡献了国家产出的10%，前10%的科学家贡献了近50%的总产出，且存在显著的学科差异。我们构建的相对存在指数（RPI）显示，在所有顶尖绩效群体中，男性比例过高而女性比例不足。通过对科学家详细的发表历史进行纵向研究来分析顶尖绩效者，微观数据来源于原始Scopus数据集。计量经济学模型识别出改变进入顶尖绩效群体几率比估计的三个最重要预测因子：性别、学术年龄和科研合作。连续六年期间固定效应的下降趋势表明学术界的竞争日益加剧。研究覆盖了所有具有国际可见度的波兰科学家大型群体（N=152,043）及其587,558篇论文。