Science is a complex system comprised of many scientists who individually make collective decisions that, due to the size and nature of the academic system, largely do not affect the system as a whole. However, certain decisions at the meso-level of research communities, such as the Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) community, may result in deep and long-lasting behavioral changes in scientists. In this article, we provide evidence on how a change in editorial policies introduced at the ACM CHI Conference in 2016 launched the CHI community on an expansive path, denoted by a year-by-year increase in the mean number of references included in CHI articles. If this near-linear trend continues undisrupted, an article in CHI 2030 will include on average almost 130 references. Our meta-research provides insights into how the nature and meaning of citation practices in HCI have changed, influenced by factors such as digital accessibility of resources and academic pressures. The observed trend towards more citations reflects a citation culture where quantity is prioritized over quality, contributing to both author and peer reviewer fatigue. This article underscores the value of meta-research for research communities and the profound impact that meso-level policy adjustments have on the evolution of scientific fields and disciplines, urging stakeholders to carefully consider the broader implications of such changes.

翻译：科学是一个由众多科学家构成的复杂系统，个体决策因学术体系的规模与特性而难以撼动系统全局。然而，研究社群中观层面的特定决策——如人机交互（HCI）领域——可能引发科学家行为深层次且持久的变革。本文通过实证研究揭示，2016年ACM CHI会议引入的编辑政策调整，如何推动该社群步入持续扩张的轨道：CHI论文的参考文献平均数量逐年递增。若此近乎线性的增长趋势持续，至2030年，一篇CHI论文的参考文献平均将接近130条。本元研究揭示了数字资源可及性、学术压力等因素如何重塑HCI领域引用实践的本质与内涵。当前引用数量激增的现象，折射出"重数量轻质量"的引用文化，进而加剧了作者与审稿人的双重疲劳。本文不仅彰显了元研究对学术社群的重要价值，更揭示了中观政策调整对学科领域演进的深远影响，敦促利益相关方审慎考量此类变革的潜在后果。