Arboviral diseases remain a major public health concern, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions where mosquito populations thrive. One promising strategy to curb transmission is the release of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia, a bacterium that reduces their ability to spread viruses. However, past large-scale releases have not always been successful, especially in complex urban settings, where restricted access to certain areas often leads to infection establishment failures and wasted resources. To address this, we developed and analyzed a partial differential equation model that simulates how Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes are established in different urban environments. We also explored strategies to improve their success under constraints on release size and the efficacy level of insecticide used for pre-release interventions. Our findings suggest that targeted releases are most effective in areas with limited mosquito movement without additional insecticide use. In higher mosquito dispersal areas, reducing at least 35% of wild mosquitoes before release significantly improves establishment within nine months. Additionally, distributing releases over 2-5 weekly batches enhances success more than a single large release, even without other interventions. These findings offer practical insights for designing cost-effective and efficient Wolbachia-based mosquito control programs, reducing the burden of mosquito-borne diseases on vulnerable communities.

翻译：虫媒病毒疾病仍然是公共卫生领域的主要关切，特别是在蚊媒种群繁盛的热带和亚热带地区。一种有前景的抑制传播策略是释放感染沃尔巴克氏体的埃及伊蚊，这种细菌能降低其传播病毒的能力。然而，过去的大规模释放并非总能成功，尤其是在复杂的城市环境中，某些区域的受限访问常导致感染建立失败和资源浪费。为解决此问题，我们开发并分析了一个偏微分方程模型，用于模拟沃尔巴克氏体感染蚊虫在不同城市环境中的建立过程。我们还探讨了在释放规模和预释放干预所用杀虫剂效力水平受限条件下提升其成功率的策略。我们的研究结果表明，在蚊虫移动受限的区域，针对性释放无需额外使用杀虫剂即可达到最佳效果。在蚊虫扩散较高的区域，释放前将野生蚊群减少至少35%能显著提升九个月内感染蚊的建立成功率。此外，将释放量分配为2-5个周批次进行，即使不采取其他干预措施，也比单次大规模释放更能提高成功率。这些发现为设计经济高效、基于沃尔巴克氏体的蚊媒控制方案提供了实用见解，有助于减轻蚊媒疾病对脆弱社区的负担。