This study investigates the shifting global dynamics of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research by analysing the trajectories of countries dominating AI publications between 2000 and 2025. Drawing on the comprehensive OpenAlex datasets and employing fractional counting to avoid double attribution in co-authored work, the research maps the relative shares of AI publications across major global players. The analysis reveals a profound restructuring of the international AI research landscape. The US and the European Union (representing EU27), once the undisputed and established leaders, have experienced a notable decline in relative dominance, with their combined share of publications falling from over 57% in 2000 to less than 25% in 2025. In contrast, China has undergone a dramatic ascent, expanding its global share of AI publications from under 5% in 2000 to nearly 36% by 2025, therefore emerging as the single most dominant contributor. Alongside China, India has also risen substantially, consolidating a multipolar Asian research ecosystem. These empirical findings highlight the strategic implications of concentrated research output, particularly China's capacity to shape the future direction of AI innovation and standard-setting. Beyond publication volume, the study further examines research quality by comparing each country's share of high-impact publications against its overall output, and analyses citation impact trajectories across major players. The findings show that in addition to China leading in volume, the country has also recently led in high-impact publications. Such an observation challenges the general assumption that Western powers retain dominance in high-impact AI scholarship.

翻译：本研究通过分析2000年至2025年间主导人工智能（AI）出版物产出的国家轨迹，探讨了全球人工智能研究格局的动态变迁。研究基于全面的OpenAlex数据集，并采用分数计数法以避免合著作品中的重复归属，从而绘制了全球主要参与者在AI出版物中的相对份额分布图。分析揭示了国际AI研究格局的深刻重构。美国和欧盟（以EU27为代表）曾是不可争议的既定领导者，但其相对主导地位已显著下降，二者合计的出版物份额从2000年的超过57%降至2025年的不足25%。相比之下，中国经历了急剧崛起，其全球AI出版物份额从2000年的不足5%扩大到2025年的近36%，从而成为最具主导地位的单一贡献者。除中国外，印度也大幅崛起，巩固了多极化的亚洲研究生态系统。这些实证发现突显了研究产出集中的战略意义，尤其是中国塑造未来AI创新与标准制定方向的能力。除出版物数量外，本研究进一步通过比较各国高影响力出版物份额与其总产出的关系来考察研究质量，并分析了主要参与者的引用影响力轨迹。研究结果表明，中国不仅在数量上领先，近期在高影响力出版物方面也处于领先地位。这一发现挑战了西方强国在高影响力AI学术领域仍保持主导地位的普遍假设。