Balancing human development with conservation necessitates ecological policies that optimize outcomes within limited budgets, highlighting the importance of cost-efficiency and local impact analysis. This study employs the Socio-Econ-Ecosystem Multipurpose Simulator (SEEMS), an Agent-Based Model (ABM) designed for simulating small-scale Coupled Human and Nature Systems (CHANS), to evaluate the cost-efficiency of two major ecology conservation programs: Grain-to-Green (G2G) and Firewood-to-Electricity (F2E). Focusing on China Wolong National Reserve, a worldwide hot spot for flagship species conservation, the study evaluates the direct benefits of these programs, including reverted farmland area and firewood consumption, along with their combined indirect benefits on habitat quality, carbon emissions, and gross economic benefits. The findings are as follows: (1) The G2G program achieves optimal financial efficiency at approximately 500 CNY/Mu, with diminishing returns observed beyond 1000 CNY/Mu; (2) For the F2E program, the most fiscally cost-efficient option arises when the subsidized electricity price is at 0.4-0.5 CNY/kWh, while further reductions of the prices to below 0.1 CNY/kWh result in a diminishing cost-benefit ratio; (3) Comprehensive cost-efficiency analysis reveals no significant link between financial burden and carbon emissions, but a positive correlation with habitat quality and an inverted U-shaped relationship with total economic income; (4) Pareto analysis identifies 18 optimal dual-policy combinations for balancing carbon footprint, habitat quality, and gross economic benefits; (5) Posterior Pareto optimization further refines the selection of a specific policy scheme for a given realistic scenario. The analytical framework of this paper helps policymakers design economically viable and environmentally sustainable policies, addressing global conservation challenges.

翻译：在有限预算内平衡人类发展与生态保护，需要优化生态政策成效，这凸显了成本效益与地方影响分析的重要性。本研究采用基于主体的社会经济生态系统多用途模拟器（SEEMS），该模型专为模拟小尺度人类与自然耦合系统（CHANS）而设计，以评估两项主要生态保护项目——退耕还林（G2G）与以电代柴（F2E）——的成本效益。研究以全球旗舰物种保护热点区域中国卧龙国家级自然保护区为案例，评估了这些项目的直接效益（包括退耕面积与薪柴消耗量）及其对栖息地质量、碳排放和总经济收益的综合间接效益。主要发现如下：（1）G2G项目在约500元/亩时达到最佳资金效率，超过1000元/亩后效益递减；（2）对于F2E项目，当补贴电价为0.4-0.5元/千瓦时最具财政成本效益，而电价进一步降至0.1元/千瓦时以下将导致成本效益比下降；（3）综合成本效益分析显示，财政负担与碳排放无显著关联，但与栖息地质量呈正相关，与总经济收入呈倒U型关系；（4）帕累托分析确定了18种平衡碳足迹、栖息地质量与总经济收益的最优双政策组合；（5）后验帕累托优化进一步细化了针对特定现实情景的政策方案选择。本文的分析框架有助于政策制定者设计经济可行且环境可持续的政策，以应对全球保护挑战。