The meaning of randomization tests has become obscure in statistics education and practice over the last century. This article makes a fresh attempt at rectifying this core concept of statistics. A new term -- "quasi-randomization test" -- is introduced to define significance tests based on theoretical models and distinguish these tests from the "randomization tests" based on the physical act of randomization. The practical importance of this distinction is illustrated through a real stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial. Building on the recent literature of randomization inference, a general framework of conditional randomization tests is developed and some practical methods to construct conditioning events are given. The proposed terminology and framework are then applied to understand several widely used (quasi-)randomization tests, including Fisher's exact test, permutation tests for treatment effect, quasi-randomization tests for independence and conditional independence, adaptive randomization, and conformal prediction.
翻译:在过去一个世纪中,随机化检验在统计教育与实践中变得愈发模糊。本文对这一统计学核心概念进行了重新澄清,引入新术语"准随机化检验"以定义基于理论模型的显著性检验,并区分其与基于物理随机化操作的"随机化检验"。通过一项真实的阶梯楔形整群随机试验,阐述了这种区分的实际重要性。基于近期随机化推断文献,构建了条件随机化检验的通用框架,并给出了构造条件事件的实用方法。最后运用所提出的术语体系与框架,解析了若干广泛使用的(准)随机化检验方法,包括费希尔精确检验、处理效应的置换检验、独立性与条件独立性的准随机化检验、自适应随机化及保形预测。