Multimodal test-time adaptation (TTA) enables pretrained multimodal models to accommodate distribution shifts during inference using only unlabeled test data, without recourse to the original training data. Compared with unimodal adaptation, multimodal adaptation is further complicated by the coexistence and interaction of multiple representation perspectives. This complexity is particularly pronounced under modality reliability shifts, which preserve modality availability but degrade information quality, and modality availability shifts, which render the corresponding modality entirely inaccessible. Category-conditional Gaussian modeling offers a natural starting point for handling such distributional variations, having proven effective in unimodal test-time adaptation for characterizing representation distributions, yet its extension to multimodal settings requires a more elaborate formulation. To this end, we propose Adaptive Probabilistic Gaussian Calibration (AdaPGC), which extends category-conditional Gaussian modeling across modality-specific and multimodal fusion representations for probabilistic calibration under multimodal distribution shifts. AdaPGC continuously updates category-conditional Gaussian models over modality-specific and fusion representations, using the resulting probabilistic predictions to calibrate source model predictions and guide reliability based rectification, while exploiting their joint distributions to recover unavailable fusion representations. Extensive experiments under diverse modality corruption and missingness conditions demonstrate that AdaPGC effectively improves robustness under both modality reliability and availability shifts. Our source code will be released at https://github.com/XuJinglinn/AdaPGC-plus.

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