The BayesMortalityPlus package provides a framework for modelling and predicting mortality data. The package includes tools for the construction of life tables based on Heligman-Pollard laws, and also on dynamic linear smoothers. Flexibility is available in terms of modelling so that the response variable may be modeled as Poisson, Binomial or Gaussian. If temporal data is available, the package provides a Bayesian implementation for the well-known Lee-Carter model that allows for estimation, projection of mortality over time, and assessment of uncertainty of any linear or nonlinear function of parameters such as life expectancy. Illustrations are considered to show the capability of the proposed package to model mortality data.
翻译:BayesMortalityPlus包提供了一个用于建模和预测死亡率数据的框架。该包包含基于Heligman-Pollard生命表构造工具,以及动态线性平滑器。在建模方面具备灵活性,响应变量可建模为泊松分布、二项分布或高斯分布。若存在时序数据,该包为著名的Lee-Carter模型提供了贝叶斯实现,支持死亡率估计、时间维度的投影,以及对任何线性或非线性参数函数(如预期寿命)的不确定性评估。通过示例展示了该包在死亡率数据建模方面的能力。