In this paper, we analyze the finality of the Filecoin network, focusing on dynamic probabilistic guarantees of tipset permanence in the canonical chain. Our approach differs from static analyses that consider only the worst-case scenario; instead, we dynamically compute the error probability at each round using the live chain history, providing a more accurate and efficient assessment. We provide a practical algorithm that only requires visibility into the blocks produced by honest participants, which can be implemented by clients or off-chain applications without any change to Filecoin's consensus mechanisms. We demonstrate that, under typical operating conditions, the sought-after error probability of $2^{-30}$ is achievable in approximately 30 rounds, a 30x improvement over the 900 rounds that the network currently encodes as a fixed threshold. This finding promises to expedite transactions and enhance network efficiency, and lays the foundation for further analysis of other DAG-structured blockchains.

翻译：本文分析了Filecoin网络的最终性，重点关注规范链中tipset持久性的动态概率保证。我们的方法有别于仅考虑最坏情况的静态分析；取而代之的是，我们利用实时链历史动态计算每一轮的误差概率，从而提供更精确高效的评估。我们提出了一种实用算法，该算法仅需获取诚实参与者产生的区块信息，可由客户端或链下应用直接实施，无需对Filecoin共识机制作任何修改。我们证明，在典型运行条件下，期望的$2^{-30}$误差概率约在30轮内即可达成，这相较于网络当前编码为固定阈值的900轮实现了30倍的提升。该发现有望加速交易处理并提升网络效率，并为其他DAG结构区块链的进一步分析奠定基础。