Geopolitical shocks reprice sovereign default risk directly; geoeconomic shocks bypass default risk and transmit through expected monetary policy and the global financial cycle. We document this distinction -- a ``scissors pattern'' in which the Direct and Global Financial Cycle channels of sovereign CDS spreads move in opposite directions -- using a daily panel of 42 advanced and emerging economies over 2018--2025. A Shapley--Taylor decomposition of nonlinear machine-learning predictions partitions each observation's spread into four channels: Direct, Global Financial Cycle, Uncertainty, and Local. Panel local projections under narrative identification around four dated crisis events recover the scissors at the 1\% significance level for Russia--Ukraine and confirm 15 of 16 event--channel predictions. A placebo falsification shows that all four episodes exceed at least 83\% of random non-event dates, with different channels exiting the envelope for each shock type. Geopolitical direct effects decay with distance from the conflict zone, while policy-uncertainty shocks activate the Uncertainty channel globally.The taxonomy implies that liquidity provision can address financial-cycle-mediated spread widening, but not the persistent component of geopolitical risk premia.

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