This study explores the influence of FOMC sentiment on market expectations, focusing on cognitive differences between experts and non-experts. Using sentiment analysis of FOMC minutes, we integrate these insights into a bounded rationality model to examine the impact on inflation expectations. Results show that experts form more conservative expectations, anticipating FOMC stabilization actions, while non-experts react more directly to inflation concerns. A lead-lag analysis indicates that institutions adjust faster, though the gap with individual investors narrows in the short term. These findings highlight the need for tailored communication strategies to better align public expectations with policy goals.

翻译：本研究探讨了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）情绪对市场预期的影响，重点关注专家与非专家之间的认知差异。通过对FOMC会议纪要进行情绪分析，我们将这些洞察整合到一个有限理性模型中，以检验其对通胀预期的影响。结果表明，专家会形成更为保守的预期，预判FOMC的稳定措施，而非专家则对通胀担忧的反应更为直接。一项领先-滞后分析表明，机构调整速度更快，尽管短期内与个人投资者的差距会缩小。这些发现凸显了需要制定有针对性的沟通策略，以更好地使公众预期与政策目标保持一致。