Consider two similar drug companies with access to similar chemical libraries and synthesis methods, who each run an R&D program. The programs have the same number of stages, which each take the same amount of time, with the same costs, with the same historic stepwise progression rates, and which aim to address the same therapeutic indication. Now let us suppose one of these companies invests in new scientific tools that make it unusually good at critical progression decisions, while the other company does not. How do we assess the difference in value between the two programs? Surprisingly, standard discounted cash flow valuation methods, such as risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV), ubiquitous in drug industry portfolio management and venture capital, are largely useless in this case. They fail to value the decisions that make drug candidates more or less valuable because rNPV conflates wrong decisions to progress bad candidates with right decisions to progress good ones. The purpose of this paper is to set out a new class of valuation model that logically links the value of therapeutic assets with the value of "decisions tools" that are used to design, optimize, and test those assets. Our model makes clear the interaction between asset value and decision tool value. It also makes clear the downstream consequences of better, or worse, upstream decisions. This new approach may support more effective allocation of R&D capital; helping fund therapeutic assets that are developed using good decision tools, and funding better decision tools to distinguish between good and bad therapeutic assets.

翻译：考虑两家相似的制药公司，它们拥有相似的化合物库和合成方法，各自开展研发项目。两个项目具有相同数量的阶段，每个阶段耗时相同、成本相同、历史分阶段推进率相同，且旨在针对相同的治疗适应症。现假设其中一家公司投资于新的科学工具，使其在关键推进决策方面表现异常出色，而另一家公司则未进行此类投资。我们应如何评估这两个项目之间的价值差异？令人惊讶的是，在制药行业投资组合管理和风险投资中普遍采用的标准贴现现金流估值方法（如风险调整净现值）在此情况下基本无效。这些方法无法评估使候选药物价值增减的决策价值，因为风险调整净现值将推进劣质候选药物的错误决策与推进优质候选药物的正确决策混为一谈。本文旨在提出一类新的估值模型，该模型能够从逻辑上将治疗资产的价值与用于设计、优化和测试这些资产的"决策工具"的价值联系起来。我们的模型清晰地揭示了资产价值与决策工具价值之间的相互作用，并阐明了上游决策优劣对下游结果的影响。这一新方法可能有助于实现研发资金更有效的配置：既支持使用优质决策工具开发的治疗资产获得资助，也资助能区分优质与劣质治疗资产的更优决策工具。