Disruption prediction has made rapid progress in recent years, especially in machine learning (ML)-based methods. Understanding why a predictor makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy for future tokamak disruption predictors. The purpose of most disruption predictors is accuracy or cross-machine capability. However, if a disruption prediction model can be interpreted, it can tell why certain samples are classified as disruption precursors. This allows us to tell the types of incoming disruption and gives us insight into the mechanism of disruption. This paper designs a disruption predictor called Interpretable Disruption Predictor based On Physics-guided feature extraction (IDP-PGFE) on J-TEXT. The prediction performance of the model is effectively improved by extracting physics-guided features. A high-performance model is required to ensure the validity of the interpretation results. The interpretability study of IDP-PGFE provides an understanding of J-TEXT disruption and is generally consistent with existing comprehension of disruption. IDP-PGFE has been applied to the disruption due to continuously increasing density towards density limit experiments on J-TEXT. The time evolution of the PGFE features contribution demonstrates that the application of ECRH triggers radiation-caused disruption, which lowers the density at disruption. While the application of RMP indeed raises the density limit in J-TEXT. The interpretability study guides intuition on the physical mechanisms of density limit disruption that RMPs affect not only the MHD instabilities but also the radiation profile, which delays density limit disruption.

翻译：近年来，破裂预测研究取得了快速进展，尤其是在基于机器学习的方法方面。对于未来的托卡马克破裂预测器而言，理解预测器为何做出特定预测可能与预测的准确性同等重要。大多数破裂预测器的设计目标是追求准确性或跨装置能力。然而，如果一个破裂预测模型具有可解释性，它就能揭示为何某些样本被分类为破裂前兆。这使我们能够识别即将发生的破裂类型，并深入理解破裂的物理机制。本文为J-TEXT装置设计了一种名为基于物理引导特征提取的可解释破裂预测器的模型。通过提取物理引导特征，有效提升了模型的预测性能。一个高性能的模型是确保解释结果有效性的前提。对IDP-PGFE的可解释性研究增进了对J-TEXT装置破裂的理解，其结果与现有对破裂的认识基本一致。IDP-PGFE已应用于J-TEXT上因密度持续增加至密度极限实验所导致的破裂。PGFE特征贡献度的时间演化表明，电子回旋共振加热的应用引发了辐射导致的破裂，从而降低了破裂时的密度。而共振磁扰动的应用确实提高了J-TEXT的密度极限。该可解释性研究为理解密度极限破裂的物理机制提供了直观见解：共振磁扰动不仅影响磁流体不稳定性，还会改变辐射分布，从而延迟密度极限破裂的发生。