Climate change has emerged as a significant global concern, attracting increasing attention worldwide. While green bubbles may be examined through a social bubble hypothesis, it is essential not to neglect a Climate Minsky moment triggered by sudden asset price changes. The significant increase in green investments highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of these market dynamics. Therefore, the current paper introduces a novel paradigm for studying such phenomena. Focusing on the renewable energy sector, Statistical Process Control (SPC) methodologies are employed to identify green bubbles within time series data. Furthermore, search volume indexes and social factors are incorporated into established econometric models to reveal potential implications for the financial system. Inspired by Joseph Schumpeter's perspectives on business cycles, this study recognizes green bubbles as a necessary evil for facilitating a successful transition towards a more sustainable future.
翻译:气候变化已成为全球性的重大关切,在世界范围内受到日益增长的关注。虽然绿色泡沫可通过社会泡沫假说加以审视,但由资产价格骤变引发的"气候明斯基时刻"亦不容忽视。绿色投资的显著增长凸显了全面理解这些市场动态的迫切需求。为此,本文提出了一种研究此类现象的新范式。本研究聚焦可再生能源领域,采用统计过程控制(SPC)方法从时间序列数据中识别绿色泡沫。此外,本文将搜索量指数与社会因素纳入既有计量经济学模型,以揭示其对金融体系的潜在影响。受约瑟夫·熊彼特关于商业周期观点的启发,本研究认为绿色泡沫是实现向更可持续未来成功转型过程中必要的"恶"。