Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform many aspects of our lives and society, bringing immense opportunities but also posing significant risks and challenges. The next several decades may well be a turning point for humanity, comparable to the industrial revolution. We write to share a set of recommendations for moving forward from the perspective of the founder and leaders of the One Hundred Year Study on AI. Launched a decade ago, the project is committed to a perpetual series of studies by multidisciplinary experts to evaluate the immediate, longer-term, and far-reaching effects of AI on people and society, and to make recommendations about AI research, policy, and practice. As we witness new capabilities emerging from neural models, it is crucial that we engage in efforts to advance our scientific understanding of these models and their behaviors. We must address the impact of AI on people and society through technical, social, and sociotechnical lenses, incorporating insights from a diverse range of experts including voices from engineering, social, behavioral, and economic disciplines. By fostering dialogue, collaboration, and action among various stakeholders, we can strategically guide the development and deployment of AI in ways that maximize its potential for contributing to human flourishing. Despite the growing divide in the field between focusing on short-term versus long-term implications, we think both are of critical importance. As Alan Turing, one of the pioneers of AI, wrote in 1950, "We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done." We offer ten recommendations for action that collectively address both the short- and long-term potential impacts of AI technologies.
翻译:人工智能的进步将深刻改变人类生活与社会的方方面面,带来巨大机遇的同时也伴随着重大风险与挑战。未来数十年很可能将成为堪比工业革命的人类转折点。我们谨代表"百年人工智能研究计划"的创始人及负责人,分享一系列面向未来的行动建议。该计划启动于十年前,致力于由多学科专家开展持续性系列研究,评估人工智能对人类社会产生的即时、中期及长远影响,并就人工智能研究、政策与实践提出建议。面对神经模型展现出的新能力,我们必须着力提升对这些模型及其行为的科学认知。需要通过技术、社会及社会技术相结合的多维视角,整合工程学、社会科学、行为科学及经济学等多领域专家的洞见,来应对人工智能对人类与社会的影响。通过促进各方利益相关者的对话、协作与行动,我们能够战略性地引导人工智能的发展与应用,最大限度发挥其促进人类福祉的潜力。尽管该领域正日益分化出聚焦短期影响与长期影响的两派观点,但我们认为两者都具有至关重要的意义。正如人工智能先驱艾伦·图灵在1950年所写:"我们只能看到不远处的前方,但那里已有大量工作需要完成。"在此我们提出十项行动建议,共同应对人工智能技术可能带来的短期与长期影响。