As energy prices surge for the second time in recent years driven by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, the European Union's continuing reliance on fossil energy imports is becoming increasingly apparent. However, despite offering an intriguing prospect of improved energy resilience, the ramp-up of local green hydrogen production lags far behind the officially stated ambitions set after the 2022 energy crisis. A prominent reason for the widening implementation gap between announced and realised production projects is overly strict rules on renewable power sourcing, prompting Member states' ministries and the European Commission to propose advancing a planned rules review from 2028 to 2026. To contribute to a successful review and rule adjustments, we address an important gap in understanding the effects of power purchase rules on green hydrogen production. By taking the perspective of European electrolyser operators, we show how the criterion of additionality and its interaction with required temporal correlation can jeopardise the fulfilment of green hydrogen offtake agreements and affect green hydrogen production costs across different European bidding zones. Applying different design paradigms to a green hydrogen production system reveals that electrolyser operator measures, such as PPA and storage upsizing, can help to mitigate the business risks posed by the additionality criterion but come with increased costs. Alternatively, relaxed temporal correlation and increased offtake flexibility both increase production system robustness and reduce production costs simultaneously. Whereby relaxing temporal correlation rules does not result in exceeded emission intensity thresholds, underlining the potential of extended transitional rules to support the ramp-up of European green hydrogen production.

翻译：随着中东持续危机导致能源价格近年内第二次飙升，欧盟对化石能源进口的持续依赖愈发凸显。尽管本地绿氢生产有望提升能源韧性，但其实际增速远落后于2022年能源危机后官方设定的宏伟目标。导致已宣布生产项目与落地项目之间存在日益扩大的执行差距，一个突出原因在于可再生能源电力采购规则过于严格，这促使欧盟成员国部委及欧盟委员会提议将原定于2028年的规则审查提前至2026年。为助力审查成功与规则调整，我们填补了电力采购规则对绿氢生产影响认知的重要空白。从欧洲电解槽运营商视角出发，揭示额外性准则及其与要求的时间相关性要求的相互作用，如何危及绿氢承购协议履行，并影响欧洲不同竞价区域的绿氢生产成本。通过将不同设计范式应用于绿氢生产系统，发现电解槽运营商的措施（如扩大购电协议规模与储能容量）虽能缓解额外性准则造成的商业风险，但会推高成本。相比之下，放宽时间相关性要求与增强承购灵活性均可同步提升生产系统稳健性并降低生产成本。其中，放宽时间相关性规则不会导致排放强度阈值超标，凸显了延长过渡期规则对支撑欧洲绿氢生产加速落地的潜力。