The ever-approaching limits of the Earth's biosphere and the potentially catastrophic consequences caused by climate change have begun to call into question the endless growth of the economy. There is increasing interest in the prospects of zero economic growth from the degrowth and post-growth literature. In particular, the question arises as to whether a zero-growth trajectory in a capitalist system with interest-bearing debt can be economically stable. There have been several answers to this question using macroeconomic models; some find a zero-growth trajectory is stable, while other models show an economic breakdown. However, the capitalist system in a period of growth is not guaranteed to be stable. Hence, a more appropriate methodology is to compare the relative stability between a growth and zero-growth scenario on the same model. Such a question has not yet been answered at any disaggregated level. It's important to investigate the consequences of zero-growth on market share instability and concentration, bankruptcy rates, income distribution, and credit network risk. To answer such questions, we develop a macroeconomic agent-based model incorporating Minskyan financial dynamics. The growth and zero-growth scenarios are accomplished by changing an average productivity growth parameter for the firms in the model. The model results showed that real GDP growth rates were more stable in the zero-growth scenario, there were fewer economic crises, lower unemployment rates, a higher wage share of output for workers, and capital firm and bank market shares were relatively more stable. Some of the consequences of zero-growth were a higher rate of inflation than in the growth scenario, increased market concentration for both firms and banks, and a higher level of financial risk in the credit network.

翻译：地球生物圈日益逼近的极限以及气候变化可能带来的灾难性后果，已开始引发对经济无限增长的质疑。来自去增长与后增长文献的研究对零经济增长的前景日益关注。尤其值得探讨的是，在存在生息债务的资本主义体系中，零增长路径是否能够保持经济稳定？已有若干研究运用宏观经济模型对此问题给出不同答案：部分模型显示零增长路径具有稳定性，而其他模型则预示经济崩溃。然而，处于增长期的资本主义体系本身并不保证稳定。因此，更适宜的研究方法是在同一模型中比较增长情景与零增长情景的相对稳定性。目前尚未有任何研究在微观层面回答这一问题。探究零增长对市场份额稳定性与集中度、破产率、收入分配及信贷网络风险的影响至关重要。为回答这些问题，我们开发了一个融合明斯基金融动态的宏观经济多主体模型。通过调整模型中企业的平均生产率增长参数，实现了增长与零增长两种情景的模拟。模型结果表明：零增长情景下的实际GDP增长率更为稳定，经济危机更少，失业率更低，劳动者产出工资份额更高，且资本企业与银行的市场份额相对更稳定。零增长带来的部分影响包括：通货膨胀率高于增长情景，企业与银行的市场集中度上升，以及信贷网络金融风险水平升高。