This study investigates the variability of the Central England Temperature (CET) series in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) using advanced time series modeling techniques. Leveraging the world's longest continuous instrumental temperature dataset (1723-2023), this research applies ARIMA and ARIMAX models to quantify the impact of climatic oscillations on regional temperature variability, while also accounting for long-term warming trends. Spectral and coherence analyses further explore the periodic interactions between CET and the oscillations. Results reveal that NAO exerts a stronger influence on CET variability compared to PDO, with significant coherence observed at cycles of 5 to 7.5 years and 2 to 2.5 years for NAO, while PDO shows no statistically significant coherence. The ARIMAX model effectively captures both the upward warming trend and the influence of climatic oscillations, with robust diagnostics confirming its reliability. This study contributes to understanding the interplay between regional temperature variability and large-scale climatic drivers, providing a framework for future research on climatic oscillations and their role in shaping regional climate dynamics. Limitations and potential future directions, including the integration of additional climatic indices and comparative regional analyses, are also discussed.

翻译：本研究采用先进的时间序列建模技术，探讨英格兰中部气温序列与北大西洋涛动和太平洋年代际振荡之间的关联性。基于全球最长的连续仪器测温数据集（1723-2023年），本研究应用ARIMA与ARIMAX模型量化气候振荡对区域气温变率的影响，同时考虑长期增温趋势。通过谱分析与相干性分析进一步探究了CET与气候振荡之间的周期性相互作用。结果表明，相较于PDO，NAO对CET变率的影响更为显著：NAO在5-7.5年与2-2.5年周期上表现出显著相干性，而PDO未呈现统计学意义的相干特征。ARIMAX模型能有效捕捉增温趋势与气候振荡的双重影响，其稳健的诊断指标验证了模型的可靠性。本研究为理解区域气温变率与大尺度气候驱动因子的相互作用提供了新见解，并为未来研究气候振荡及其对区域气候动力过程的塑造作用建立了分析框架。文中同时讨论了研究局限性及未来方向，包括整合更多气候指数与开展区域对比分析等。