Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) risk is limited by the brevity and spatial sparsity of the historical record, particularly for the rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS (Wind-focused Hurricane Interactive Track Simulator), a non-parametric semi-Markov track generator that extends the HITS framework of Nakamura et al. (2015) in three ways: transitions between historical track segments are conditioned on local wind speed in addition to position, age, and forward vector; the kernel selection on the comparative-vector term is sharpened to suppress dynamically inconsistent jumps; and a short smoothing window is applied across each transition to remove the position and wind discontinuities reported by downstream surge users. WHITS is fit to the full available best-track record in each of six basins in IBTrACS, extending in the North Atlantic to 1851 and in other basins to the earliest year of reliable best-track data. The resulting 10,000-yr global synthetic catalog reproduces observed track density and the annual hurricane/typhoon-force wind-hit probability across all basins. The catalog is intended for catastrophe-risk applications where a large, low-bias sample of physically plausible tracks is more useful than a small, statistically corrected one.

翻译：热带气旋风险的可靠评估受限于历史记录的短暂性和空间稀疏性，尤其对于主导保险损失的罕见高强度登陆事件。本文提出WHITS（风驱飓风交互路径模拟器）——一种非参数半马尔可夫路径生成器，在Nakamura等人（2015）的HITS框架基础上实现三方面改进：历史路径片段之间的转换条件除了位置、年龄和前向向量外，还依赖于局部风速；通过优化比较向量项的核函数选择抑制动力学不一致的跳跃；对每次转换应用短平滑窗口，消除下游风暴潮用户报告的位臵与风速不连续性。WHITS基于IBTrACS中六个海盆可获取的完整最佳路径数据拟合，其中北大西洋区域数据可追溯至1851年，其他海盆则采用最早可靠最佳路径数据年份。由此生成的万年全球合成目录再现了所有海盆观测到的路径密度及年度飓风/台风级风速发生概率。该目录适用于灾难风险评估场景——相较于小规模统计校正样本，大规模低偏差物理合理路径更具实用价值。