Recent progress in deep learning, a special form of machine learning, has led to remarkable capabilities machines can now be endowed with: they can read and understand free flowing text, reason and bargain with human counterparts, translate texts between languages, learn how to take decisions to maximize certain outcomes, etc. Today, machines have revolutionized the detection of cancer, the prediction of protein structures, the design of drugs, the control of nuclear fusion reactors etc. Although these capabilities are still in their infancy, it seems clear that their continued refinement and application will result in a technological impact on nearly all social and economic areas of human activity, the likes of which we have not seen before. In this article, I will share my view as to how AI will likely impact asset management in general and I will provide a mental framework that will equip readers with a simple criterion to assess whether and to what degree a given fund really exploits deep learning and whether a large disruption risk from deep learning exist.
翻译:深度学习作为机器学习的一种特殊形式,其近期进展赋予了机器前所未有的能力:它们能够阅读并理解自由流动的文本、与人类进行推理和谈判、实现语言间的文本翻译、学习如何决策以最大化特定结果等。如今,机器已彻底改变了癌症检测、蛋白质结构预测、药物设计、核聚变反应堆控制等领域。尽管这些能力尚处于初级阶段,但可以明确的是,其持续精进与应用将对人类活动的几乎所有社会和经济领域产生前所未有的技术影响。本文将阐述我对人工智能如何可能影响资产管理的总体看法,并提供一种思维框架,使读者能够依据简单标准评估特定基金是否真正应用深度学习及其应用程度,以及该基金是否面临来自深度学习的重大颠覆风险。