Suppose we need a deep collective analysis of an open scientific problem: there is a complex scientific hypothesis and a large online group of mutually unrelated experts with relevant private information of a diverse and unpredictable nature. This information may be results of experts' individual experiments, original reasoning of some of them, results of AI systems they use, etc. We propose a simple mechanism based on a self-resolving play-money prediction market entangled with a chat. We show that such a system can easily be brought to an equilibrium where participants directly share their private information on the hypothesis through the chat and trade as if the market were resolved in accordance with the truth of the hypothesis. This approach will lead to efficient aggregation of relevant information in a completely interpretable form even if the ground truth cannot be established and experts initially know nothing about each other and cannot perform complex Bayesian calculations. Finally, by rewarding the experts with some real assets proportionally to the play money they end up with, we can get an innovative way to fund large-scale collaborative studies of any type.

翻译：假设我们需要对一个开放科学问题进行深入的集体分析：存在一个复杂的科学假设，以及一个大型在线专家群体，这些专家彼此无关，但各自拥有相关且性质多样、难以预测的私有信息。这些信息可能来自专家个人的实验结果、部分专家的原创推理、他们所用人工智能系统的输出等。我们提出一种基于与聊天功能交织的自结算虚拟货币预测市场的简单机制。研究表明，该系统可轻易达到一种均衡状态：参与者通过聊天直接分享其关于该假设的私有信息，并如同市场已根据假设的真实性完成结算一样进行交易。即使无法确定基本事实，且专家最初彼此一无所知、无法执行复杂的贝叶斯计算，该方法仍能以完全可解释的形式高效聚合相关信息。最后，通过根据专家最终持有的虚拟货币按比例给予其真实资产奖励，我们可获得一种创新方式，为任何类型的大规模协作研究提供资助。