As the world increasingly relies on mathematical models for forecasts in different areas, effective communication of uncertainty in time series predictions is important for informed decision making. This study explores how users estimate probabilistic uncertainty in time series predictions under different variants of line charts depicting uncertainty. It examines the role of individual characteristics and the influence of user-reported metrics on uncertainty estimations. By addressing these aspects, this paper aims to enhance the understanding of uncertainty visualization and for improving communication in time series forecast visualizations and the design of prediction data dashboards.As the world increasingly relies on mathematical models for forecasts in different areas, effective communication of uncertainty in time series predictions is important for informed decision making. This study explores how users estimate probabilistic uncertainty in time series predictions under different variants of line charts depicting uncertainty. It examines the role of individual characteristics and the influence of user-reported metrics on uncertainty estimations. By addressing these aspects, this paper aims to enhance the understanding of uncertainty visualization and for improving communication in time series forecast visualizations and the design of prediction data dashboards.

翻译：随着世界各领域日益依赖数学模型进行预测，有效传达时间序列预测中的不确定性对于知情决策至关重要。本研究探讨了用户在不同变体的不确定性折线图下如何估计时间序列预测中的概率不确定性。研究考察了个人特征的作用以及用户报告指标对不确定性估计的影响。通过探讨这些方面，本文旨在深化对不确定性可视化的理解，以改进时间序列预测可视化中的信息传达及预测数据仪表板的设计。