In the largest survey of its kind, 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues gave predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician, and autonomously downloading and fine-tuning a large language model. If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047. The latter estimate is 13 years earlier than that reached in a similar survey we conducted only one year earlier [Grace et al., 2022]. However, the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116 (compared to 2164 in the 2022 survey). Most respondents expressed substantial uncertainty about the long-term value of AI progress: While 68.3% thought good outcomes from superhuman AI are more likely than bad, of these net optimists 48% gave at least a 5% chance of extremely bad outcomes such as human extinction, and 59% of net pessimists gave 5% or more to extremely good outcomes. Between 38% and 51% of respondents gave at least a 10% chance to advanced AI leading to outcomes as bad as human extinction. More than half suggested that "substantial" or "extreme" concern is warranted about six different AI-related scenarios, including misinformation, authoritarian control, and inequality. There was disagreement about whether faster or slower AI progress would be better for the future of humanity. However, there was broad agreement that research aimed at minimizing potential risks from AI systems ought to be prioritized more.

翻译：在同类规模最大的调查中，2778位曾在顶级人工智能（AI）会议发表论文的研究者，对AI发展速度、先进AI系统的性质及其影响做出了预测。综合预测显示，到2028年，AI系统至少有50%的概率实现多项里程碑，包括从零开始自主构建支付处理网站、创作与流行歌手新歌无异的歌曲，以及自主下载并微调大型语言模型。若科研进程未受干扰，到2027年，无辅助机器在所有任务上超越人类的概率预估为10%，而到2047年这一概率将升至50%。这一预测比一年前我们进行的类似调查结果提前了13年（Grace等，2022年）。然而，所有人类职业实现完全自动化的概率，要到2037年才达到10%，而50%概率则需等到2116年（2022年调查中为2164年）。多数受访者对AI进步的长期价值抱有显著的不确定性：68.3%的人认为超人类AI带来好结果的可能性大于坏结果，但这些乐观者中48%认为出现人类灭绝等极端坏结果的概率至少为5%，而悲观者中59%认为出现极好结果的概率达到或超过5%。38%至51%的受访者认为先进AI导致人类灭绝等糟糕结果的概率至少为10%。超过半数受访者认为，对于不实信息、威权控制和不平等等六种与AI相关的情景，应予以“重大”或“极端”关注。关于AI发展速度对人类社会未来是否更有利，各方意见存在分歧。然而，大家普遍认为，应优先推进旨在最小化AI系统潜在风险的研究。