In this paper, we introduce the R package mcmsupply which implements Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and projecting modern contraceptive market supply shares over time. The package implements four model types. These models vary by the administration level of their outcome estimates (national or subnational estimates) and dataset type utilised in the estimation (multi-country or single-country contraceptive market supply datasets). mcmsupply contains a compilation of national and subnational level contraceptive source datasets, generated by IPUMS and Demographic and Health Survey microdata. We describe the functions that implement the models through practical examples. The annual estimates and projections with uncertainty of the contraceptive market supply, produced by mcmcsupply at a national and subnational level, are the first of their kind. These estimates and projections have diverse applications, including acting as an indicator of family planning market stability over time and being utilised in the calculation of estimates of modern contraceptive use.

翻译：本文介绍R包mcmsupply，该包实现了贝叶斯层次模型，用于估算和预测现代避孕市场供应份额随时间的变化趋势。该包包含四种模型类型，其差异体现在结果估计的管理层级（国家级或次国家级估计）以及估计中使用的数据集类型（多国或单国避孕市场供应数据集）。mcmsupply整合了由IPUMS和人口与健康调查微观数据生成的全国及次国家级避孕来源数据集。我们通过实际案例描述了执行这些模型的函数功能。由mcmcsupply在国家和次国家级层面生成的含有不确定性的年度市场供应估算与预测，开创了此类产品的先河。这些估算与预测具有广泛的应用前景，既可作为计划生育市场长期稳定性的指标，也可用于现代避孕方法使用率的估算计算。