Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most importantly, these forecasts are essential for the operational management of power plants, ensuring supply security and grid stability, and in guiding energy trading and investment decisions. The primary challenge for this forecasting task lies in disentangling the multifaceted drivers of load, which include national deterministic (daily, weekly, annual, and holiday patterns) and national stochastic weather and autoregressive effects. Additionally, transnational stochastic socio-economic and political effects add further complexity, in particular, due to their non-stationarity. To address this challenge, we present an interpretable probabilistic mid-term forecasting model for the hourly load that captures, besides all deterministic effects, the various uncertainties in load. This model recognizes transnational dependencies across 24 European countries, with multivariate modeled socio-economic and political states and cross-country dependent forecasting. Built from interpretable Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), the model enables an analysis of the transmission of each incorporated effect to the hour-specific load. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of countries reliant on electric heating under extreme weather scenarios. This emphasizes the need for high-resolution forecasting of weather effects on pan-European electricity consumption especially in anticipation of widespread electric heating adoption.

翻译：准确预测空间天气及泛欧洲社会经济与政治风险对中期范围内小时级电力需求的影响，对于在固有不确定性中进行战略决策至关重要。尤为重要的是，此类预测对于发电厂的运行管理、保障供电安全与电网稳定，以及指导能源交易与投资决策具有不可或缺的作用。该预测任务面临的主要挑战在于厘清负荷的多维度驱动因素，这些因素包括国家层面的确定性模式（日、周、年及节假日周期）以及国家层面的随机天气效应与自回归效应。此外，跨国界的随机社会经济与政治效应进一步增加了复杂性，这尤其源于其非平稳性。为应对这一挑战，我们提出了一种可解释的概率性中期小时负荷预测模型。该模型不仅涵盖所有确定性效应，还能捕捉负荷中的各类不确定性。模型识别了欧洲24个国家间的跨国依赖关系，通过多变量建模的社会经济与政治状态及跨国依赖的预测框架实现。模型基于可解释的广义可加模型构建，能够分析每种纳入的效应对特定小时负荷的传导机制。我们的研究结果突显了依赖电采暖的国家在极端天气情景下的脆弱性。这强调了高分辨率预测天气对泛欧洲电力消费影响的必要性，尤其是在预期电采暖广泛普及的背景下。