Located in Southern Europe, the Drina River Basin is shared between three countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia. The power sectors of the three countries have a particularly high dependence on coal for power generation. In this paper we analyse different development pathways for achieving climate neutrality in these countries and explore the potential of variable renewable energy in the area, and its role in the decarbonization of the power sector. We investigate the possibility of whether hydro and non-hydro renewables can enable a net zero transition by 2050, and how renewable energy might affect the hydropower cascade shared by the three countries. The Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used to develop a model representation of the power sector of the countries. The findings of this analysis show that the renewable potential of the countries is a significant 94.4 GW. This potential is 68% to 287% higher than that of previous assessments, depending on the study of comparison. By 2050, 17% of this potential is utilized for VRE capacity additions under an Emission Limit scenario assuming net-zero. These findings suggest that the local VRE potential is sufficient to support the transition to net-zero. Scenarios with higher shares of solar and thermal power show increased power generation from the hydropower cascade, thus reducing the water available for purposes other than power generation.

翻译：位于南欧的德里纳河流域由波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、黑山和塞尔维亚三个国家共享。这三个国家的电力行业对燃煤发电的依赖性极高。本文分析了实现这些国家气候中和的不同发展路径，探究了该地区可变可再生能源的潜力及其在电力行业脱碳中的作用。我们研究了水能与非水可再生能源能否在2050年前实现净零转型，以及可再生能源如何影响三国共享的水电梯级开发。采用开源能源建模系统（OSeMOSYS）构建了各国电力系统的模型表征。分析结果表明：该地区的可再生能源潜力高达94.4吉瓦，较此前评估结果高出68%至287%（具体数值因对比研究而异）。在净零排放约束情景下，2050年可变可再生能源装机容量的17%来自上述潜力的开发。这一发现表明，本地可变可再生能源潜力足以支撑净零转型。当太阳能与火电占比更高的情景下，水电梯级发电量增加，从而减少了用于非发电用途的水资源可用量。