In this paper, a novel cyber-insurance model design is proposed based on system risk evaluation with smart technology applications. The cyber insurance policy for power systems is tailored via cyber risk modeling, reliability impact analysis, and insurance premium calculation. A stochastic Epidemic Network Model is developed to evaluate the cyber risk by propagating cyberattacks among graphical vulnerabilities. Smart technologies deployed in risk modeling include smart monitoring and job thread assignment. Smart monitoring boosts the substation availability against cyberattacks with preventive and corrective measures. The job thread assignment solution reduces the execution failures by distributing the control and monitoring tasks to multiple threads. Reliability assessment is deployed to estimate load losses convertible to monetary losses. These monetary losses would be shared through a mutual insurance plan. To ensure a fair distribution of indemnity, a new Shapley mutual insurance principle is devised. Effectiveness of the proposed Shapley mutual insurance design is validated via case studies. The Shapley premium is compared with existent premium designs. It is shown that the Shapley premium has high indemnity levels closer to those of Tail Conditional Expectation premium. Meanwhile, the Shapley premium is nearly as affordable as the coalitional premium and keeps a relatively low insolvency probability.

翻译：本文提出一种基于智能技术应用的系统风险评估的新型网络保险模型设计。针对电力系统的网络保险策略，通过网络风险建模、可靠性影响分析与保费计算进行定制化设计。开发了随机流行病网络模型，通过图形漏洞间的网络攻击传播进行风险评估。风险建模中应用的智能技术包括智能监控与任务线程分配：智能监控通过预防与纠正措施提升变电站抵御网络攻击的可用性；任务线程分配方案通过将控制与监控任务分发至多线程，降低执行故障率。采用可靠性评估方法将负荷损失转换为货币损失，并通过互助保险计划分担此类货币损失。为实现赔偿的公平分配，提出新型沙普利互助保险原理。通过案例研究验证了所提沙普利互助保险设计的有效性，并将沙普利保费与现有保费设计进行比较。结果表明，沙普利保费具有接近尾条件期望保费的较高赔偿水平，同时其保费水平几乎与联盟保费相当，并保持相对较低的破产概率。