Modelling, forecasting and overall understanding of the dynamics of the power grid and its frequency are essential for the safe operation of existing and future power grids. Much previous research was focused on large continental areas, while small systems, such as islands are less well-studied. These natural island systems are ideal testing environments for microgrid proposals and artificially islanded grid operation. In the present paper, we utilize measurements of the power grid frequency obtained in European islands: the Faroe Islands, Ireland, the Balearic Islands and Iceland and investigate how their frequency can be predicted, compared to the Nordic power system, acting as a reference. The Balearic islands are found to be particularly deterministic and easy to predict in contrast to hard-to-predict Iceland. Furthermore, we show that typically 2-4 weeks of data are needed to improve prediction performance beyond simple benchmarks.

翻译：建模、预测及全面理解电网及其频率的动态特性对于现有及未来电网的安全运行至关重要。以往研究多聚焦于大型大陆区域，而岛屿等小型系统的研究相对不足。这些天然岛屿系统是微电网方案及人工孤岛运行的理想测试环境。本文利用在法罗群岛、爱尔兰、巴利阿里群岛和冰岛等欧洲岛屿获取的电网频率测量数据，以北欧电力系统为参照，探究其频率的可预测性。结果表明，巴利阿里群岛具有显著的确定性和易预测性，而冰岛则难以预测。此外，我们指出通常需要2-4周的数据才能将预测性能提升至超越简单基准模型。