Modelling, forecasting and overall understanding of the dynamics of the power grid and its frequency are essential for the safe operation of existing and future power grids. Much previous research was focused on large continental areas, while small systems, such as islands are less well-studied. These natural island systems are ideal testing environments for microgrid proposals and artificially islanded grid operation. In the present paper, we utilize measurements of the power grid frequency obtained in European islands: the Faroe Islands, Ireland, the Balearic Islands and Iceland and investigate how their frequency can be predicted, compared to the Nordic power system, acting as a reference. The Balearic islands are found to be particularly deterministic and easy to predict in contrast to hard-to-predict Iceland. Furthermore, we show that typically 2-4 weeks of data are needed to improve prediction performance beyond simple benchmarks.

翻译：建模、预测和全面了解电网动态及其频率对于现有和未来电网的安全运作至关重要,以前的许多研究都集中在大大陆地区,而岛屿等小型系统研究较少,这些自然岛屿系统是微型电网提议和人工岛屿电网运作的理想试验环境,在本文件中,我们利用对欧洲各岛屿(法罗群岛、爱尔兰、巴利阿里群岛和冰岛)电网频率的测量,并调查如何预测其频率,与北欧电力系统相比,如何预测其频率,作为参照。