This study aims to use simultaneous quantile regression (SQR) to examine the impact of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty including global pandemic, geopolitical risk on the futures returns of crude oil (ROC). The data for this study is sourced from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Database) economic dataset; the importance of the factors have been validated by using variation inflation factor (VIF) and principal component analysis (PCA). To fully understand the combined effect of these factors on WTI, study includes interaction terms in the multi-factor model. Empirical results suggest that changes in ROC can have varying impacts depending on the specific period and market conditions. The results can be used for informed investment decisions and to construct portfolios that are well-balanced in terms of risk and return. Structural breaks, such as changes in global economic conditions or shifts in demand for crude oil, can cause return on crude oil to be sensitive to changes in different time periods. The unique aspect ness of this study also lies in its inclusion of explanatory factors related to the pandemic, geopolitical risk, and inflation.

翻译：本研究旨在运用同时分位数回归（SQR）方法，考察宏观经济与金融不确定性（包括全球流行病、地缘政治风险）对原油期货收益（ROC）的影响。数据来源于FRED（美联储经济数据库）经济数据集，并通过方差膨胀因子（VIF）和主成分分析（PCA）验证各因素的重要性。为全面理解这些因素对WTI（西德克萨斯中质原油）的综合效应，研究在多因素模型中引入了交互项。实证结果表明，ROC的变化可能因特定时期和市场条件而产生不同影响。研究结果可用于指导知情投资决策，并构建风险与收益均衡的投资组合。全球经济状况变化或原油需求变动等结构性突变，可能导致原油收益在不同时期对因素变化产生不同的敏感性。本研究的独特性还体现在纳入了与流行病、地缘政治风险及通货膨胀相关的解释变量。