The aim of this paper is to extend the framework of causal inference, in particular as it has been developed by Judea Pearl, in order to model actions and identify their intended effects, in the direction opened by Elisabeth Anscombe. We show how intentions can be inferred from a causal model and its implied correlations observable in data. The paper defines confounding effects as the reasons why teleological inference may fail and introduces interference as a way to control for them. The ''fundamental problem'' of teleological inference is presented, explaining why causal analysis needs an extension in order to take intentions into account.

翻译：本文旨在扩展因果推断框架，特别是朱迪亚·珀尔（Judea Pearl）所发展的理论，以在伊丽莎白·安斯康姆（Elisabeth Anscombe）开辟的方向上，对行动进行建模并识别其意图效果。我们展示了如何从因果模型及其在数据中可观测的隐含相关性推断出意图。本文将混杂效应定义为目的论推断可能失败的原因，并引入干预作为控制这些效应的方法。文中提出了目的论推断的“基本问题”，解释了为何因果分析需要扩展以将意图纳入考量。