Resource adequacy studies typically use standard metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation and Expected Energy Unserved to quantify the risk of supply shortfalls. This paper critiques present approaches to adequacy assessment and capacity procurement in terms of their relevance to decision maker interests, before demonstrating alternatives including risk-averse metrics and visualisations of wider risk profile. This is illustrated with results for a Great Britain example, in which the risk profile varies substantially with the installed capacity of wind generation. This paper goes beyond previous literature through its critical discussion of how current practices reflect decision maker interests; and how decision making can be improved using a broader range of outputs available from standard models.
翻译:资源充裕性研究通常使用标准指标,如失负荷期望与期望缺供电量,来量化供应短缺的风险。本文批判性地审视了当前充裕性评估与容量采购方法在反映决策者利益方面的适用性,并展示了替代方案,包括风险规避指标及更广泛风险概况的可视化。通过英国案例进行说明,在该案例中,风险概况随风电装机容量变化而显著不同。本文超越以往文献,深入探讨了当前实践如何体现决策者利益,以及如何利用标准模型可输出的更广泛结果来改进决策。