Drawing on infrastructure studies in HCI and CSCW, this paper introduces Protocol Futuring, a methodological framework that extends design futuring by foregrounding protocols -- rules, standards, and coordination mechanisms -- as the primary material of speculative inquiry. Rather than imagining discrete future artifacts, Protocol Futuring examines how protocol rules accumulate drift, jam, and other second-order effects over long temporal horizons. We demonstrate the method through a case study of Knowledge Futurama, a multi-team participatory workshop exploring millennial-scale knowledge preservation. Using a relay format in which teams inherited and reinterpreted partially formed designs, the workshop revealed how ambiguous handovers, adversarial reinterpretations, shifting cultural norms, and crisis dynamics transform protocols as they move across communities and epochs. The case shows how Protocol Futuring makes infrastructural politics and long-run consequences analytically visible. We discuss the method's strengths, limitations, and implications for researchers investigating emergent sociotechnical systems whose impacts unfold over extended timescales.
翻译:借鉴人机交互与计算机支持协同工作领域的基础设施研究,本文提出"协议未来化"这一方法论框架,该框架通过将协议——规则、标准与协调机制——置于思辨探究的核心位置,拓展了设计未来化的研究范式。与构想离散的未来制品不同,协议未来化着眼于协议规则如何在长期时间跨度中积累漂移、阻塞及其他二阶效应。我们通过"知识未来全景"案例研究展示该方法,该案例是一个探索千年尺度知识保存的多团队参与式工作坊。工作坊采用接力形式,各团队继承并重新阐释部分成形的设计方案,揭示了模糊的交接过程、对抗性重释、变迁的文化规范及危机动态如何使协议在跨越社群与时代的过程中发生转型。本案例表明协议未来化方法如何使基础设施政治与长期后果在分析层面变得可见。我们讨论了该方法在研究影响跨越延长时间尺度的新兴社会技术系统时的优势、局限及启示意义。