Earnings calls influence stock prices and are traditionally analyzed using sentiment and linguistic traces. Our research introduces a "Topic-Switching Index," a novel metric quantified through the transformer model FinBERT, to measure managerial evasion during Q$\&$A sessions in earnings calls. We find a negative correlation between this index and subsequent stock prices, indicating that investors penalize managerial evasiveness. This study is the first to quantify such evasive tactics, adding a new dimension to how earnings calls are understood and suggesting that topic shifting is an overlooked but significant factor. We also show the predictability of the index under three different classifier models and it stands out in all circumstances.
翻译:盈利电话会议影响股票价格,传统上通过情感分析和语言特征进行研究。本研究引入“话题转移指数”,这是一项通过Transformer模型FinBERT量化的新颖指标,用于衡量盈利电话会议问答环节中管理层的回避行为。我们发现该指数与后续股价呈负相关,表明投资者会惩罚管理层的回避态度。本研究首次量化此类回避策略,为理解盈利电话会议增添了新维度,并指出话题转移是一个被忽视但至关重要的因素。我们还展示了该指数在三种不同分类器模型下的可预测性,且在所有情境中均表现突出。