This research note investigates the impact of the experience museum Sensoria, opened in September 2024 in Holzminden, Germany, on local tourism demand and related direct and indirect effects. To this end, the study employs a novel approach by combining causal inference and demand-side economic analysis. A difference-in-differences approach is employed to quantify the number of additional guest overnight stays in the treatment city; the results are converted into industry-specific expenditures, from which the direct and indirect effects of Sensoria are determined. A positive and significant impact which corresponds to 4,691 additional overnight stays can be detected in the first year of operation of the new tourist attraction, resulting in an additional gross turnover of approximately 0.56 million EUR across the hospitality and retail industries and other services. The direct effects and indirect effects amount to approximately 0.23 and 0.21 million EUR, respectively. However, long-term effects cannot (yet) be determined. Additionally, positive effects from small and large events in the cities studied can be demonstrated. This brief study demonstrates that combining the two approaches mentioned holds promise, yet requires a more in-depth analysis, for which suggestions are also discussed regarding how it could be conducted.
翻译:本研究笔记调查了2024年9月在德国霍尔茨明登开业的感官体验博物馆Sensoria对当地旅游需求及相关直接与间接效应的影响。为此,研究采用了一种新颖方法,将因果推断与需求侧经济分析相结合。采用双重差分法量化处理城市中额外的游客过夜次数;结果被转化为行业特定支出,进而确定Sensoria的直接和间接效应。在该新兴旅游景点运营的第一年,检测到显著正向影响,对应4,691次额外过夜停留,为酒店餐饮业、零售业及其他服务业带来约56万欧元的额外总营业额。直接效应与间接效应分别约为23万欧元和21万欧元。然而,长期效应尚无法确定。此外,研究城市中中小型活动的积极影响也得到了证实。本简短研究表明,将上述两种方法相结合具有前景,但仍需进行更深入的分析,并就如何开展此类分析提出了相关建议。