Improper priors are not allowed for the computation of the Bayesian evidence $Z=p({\bf y})$ (a.k.a., marginal likelihood), since in this case $Z$ is not completely specified due to an arbitrary constant involved in the computation. However, in this work, we remark that they can be employed in a specific type of model selection problem: when we have several (possibly infinite) models belonging to the same parametric family (i.e., for tuning parameters of a parametric model). However, the quantities involved in this type of selection cannot be considered as Bayesian evidences: we suggest to use the name ``fake evidences'' (or ``areas under the likelihood'' in the case of uniform improper priors). We also show that, in this model selection scenario, using a diffuse prior and increasing its scale parameter asymptotically to infinity, we cannot recover the value of the area under the likelihood, obtained with a uniform improper prior. We first discuss it from a general point of view. Then we provide, as an applicative example, all the details for Bayesian regression models with nonlinear bases, considering two cases: the use of a uniform improper prior and the use of a Gaussian prior, respectively. A numerical experiment is also provided confirming and checking all the previous statements.
翻译:在计算贝叶斯证据 $Z=p({\bf y})$(亦称边缘似然)时,不允许使用非正常先验,因为在这种情况下,由于计算中涉及任意常数,$Z$ 无法被完全确定。然而,本工作中我们指出,在特定类型的模型选择问题中可以使用非正常先验:即当我们有多个(可能无限个)属于同一参数族(例如用于调整参数模型的超参数)的模型时。然而,此类选择问题中涉及的量不能被视作贝叶斯证据:我们建议使用“伪证据”这一名称(对于均匀非正常先验的情况,可称为“似然函数下方面积”)。我们还证明,在此类模型选择场景中,若使用扩散先验并将其尺度参数渐近增大至无穷大,我们无法恢复使用均匀非正常先验所得的似然函数下方面积值。我们首先从一般性角度进行讨论,随后以非线性基函数的贝叶斯回归模型作为应用示例,分别考虑使用均匀非正常先验与高斯先验两种情况,并提供了数值实验以验证和检验所有前述结论。